From about 30 who initially joined the governorship race in Kogi State, only 13 purchased the pricey expression of interests and nomination forms. A peep into the list indicates that clearly, it fits a description of the best, the worst and the ugliest the state has to offer.
From immediate past Governor Idris Wada; considered largely weak to former governor, Ibrahim Idris who many are alleging wants a 3rd and maybe 4th tenure via a proxy and first son, Abubakar.
From AVM Salihu Atawodi, a retired naval chief, tried by the EFCC in the infamous arms purchase scandal to Nigeria’s loquacious and somehow productive senator, Dino Melaye.
Others include Haruna Kebir of Saraha Homes as well as Grace Adejo who walks side by side green horns like Joseph Erico, Adebayo Adobayin Averehi and Abubakar Aminu.
No doubts, the coming governorship election shall be a mixture of surprises starting from the primary elections of the biggest opposition party – the PDP. Whereas pundits believe that the most pressing need of Kogites rotate around payment of at least 40 months’ salary and pension backlog, deteriorating security, comatose education sector and a shocking absence of critical infrastructure. A critical look at the situation in the state strongly indicate that before competence, skills, finance, capacity, vision e.t.c., religion and ethnicity will play crucial roles in determining who the next governor of Kogi State will be.
Kogi state is largely homogenous and political precedence which have shaped the narratives since 1999 backup claims that voters in Kogi State may vote for the weirdest of reasons and this is because whereas the PDP may have succeeded in pruning down the list of aspirants to a manageable 13 after a futile effort of some leaders and elders who eventually took sides based on which aspirant paid a higher bribe, those who are still standing have left enthusiasts with more confusion. A comparative analysis of the aspirants therefore suffices.
ALHAJI ABUBAKAR IDRIS is the first son of former governor Ibrahim Idris (IBRO). His entrance into the race is considered as an attempt by his father to extend his own tenure which ended in 2011 by another 2 terms via his son.
It is strongly perceived that an Abubakar Idris government will mean a return of the twin demons of “god-fatherism” and “familitocracy” in a state that is already on the brink of a consuming uprising and implosion.
AVM SALIHU ATAWODI (RTD) is purely elitist. He wears the prestigious rank of a retired Air Vice Marshal of Nigeria’s Airforce and doubles as a professional gubernatorial aspirant in Kogi State. His back-to-back losses in politics since his retirement has forced him to withdraw and be impossible to reach within the state
No doubt, AVM Atawodi is very popular in the ranks of the APC in Kogi State who until lately believed he was their friend, it remains to be seen how his popularity in the APC can give him a win in a primary elections where only PDP delegates will vote.
CAPT. IDRIS ICHALLA WADA took Kogites by surprise when against general permutations, he declared to run for office. He needs no introduction across Kogi State because he is the immediate past governor of the State. He has a formidable structure mainly made up of virtually every appointee who served in his administration across the state. Key members of his structures are people of means. This means that they can control their localities.
Wada is a refined gentleman who is perceived as liquid but it’s largely known that due to health reasons and his background as a modest and humane technocrat he lacks capacity to play rough when the chips are down.
What is shocking about his aspiration is that so far, he has been unable to campaign on the basis of his past achievements having left office less 48 months ago. While members of his campaign team make all sorts of excuses for him, many believe Wada may not actually have anything to show for his first tenure in office.
On another hand, within the PDP, many supporters, elders, stakeholder and even non-party members have concluded that he is not electable having lost an election to the APC as an incumbent governor with limitless resources due to his inability to harness the party structures and perform above average.
MOHAMMED SHAIBU TETTES comes across as unassuming. When news filtered into Kogi State that he pulled a masterstroke and emerged an aspirant on the platform of the PDP after picking the forms, mum was the word. Some were stunned; many others were shocked. The state stood still for 48 hours. No doubt He was a joker that upset various political permutations.
Whereas elections is considered a game for only the tough in Kogi State, Tettes has remained unperturbed, undistracted and unbothered by questions of his lack of access to “free cash”. He even called an elaborate gathering of the crème-de-la-crème in the state comprising former governors Ibrahim Idris and Idris Wada, Col. Ahmadu Ali, Tunde Ayeni, Chief John Odawn, Hon. Positive Idachaba amongst other party big wigs in November 2018 wherein he presented His auto-biography and launched his policy document.
He appeals greatly to the educated, the middle class, professionals, the apolitical youth and it is on this basis that many political analysts believe that He is the face of the new political force in Kogi PDP.
However, feelers suggest that his only weakness is a lack of equal financial capacity as aspirants like Idris Wada who left power less than 4 years and Dino Melaye who’s a sitting senator.
SEN. DINO MELAYE is clearly the only candidate who has the capacity to protect every single PDP vote from His Kogi West senatorial zone. He is a sitting senator and represents the only zone in Kogi State that’s politically united and has proven capacity to produce bloc votes.
As a sitting lawmaker, he has access to the expanded caucus of the party at the national level where high level networking takes place across relevant stakeholders. This was evident when Wadata Plaza emptied into his home town in Ijumu LGA during the outing ceremony for his late mother.
Dino Melaye is a smart and calculative politician. He is moderately liquid and has a good relationship with the media; a feat that only Mohammed Tettes can match. Dino Melaye has a capacity to match incumbent Gov. Yahaya Bello along the lines of violence and thuggery. However, beyond these, he does not appeal to most respondents. To be exact, even His people would rather have a senator Dino Melaye than Governor Dino Melaye.
ENGR. MUSA WADA is not having the best of times. He is the kid brother of immediate past governor, Capt. Idris Ichalla Wada who is in the governorship race. He is married to the sister of Alhaji Abubakar Idris who is also in the race by virtue of which he is the son-in-law to Alhaji Ibrahim Idris.
He is a professional who’s relatively new in partisan politics. He shares the same burden as Abubakar Idris; his in-law and Capt. Idris Wada; his brother because of the general consensus in Kogi State that the state is not a commodity to be bought, used and discarded after it has rotated between siblings and in-laws.
OTHER ASPIRANTS – The aspirations of Dr. Joseph Erico, Mrs. Grace Adejo, Victor Adoji who just defected into the PDP from the ADC, Adebayo Adobayin Averehi and Dr. Emmanuel Omebije should not be discounted for any reason. However, if truth must be told, it should be told to the extent of acknowledging that feelers from the structures of the PDP clearly indicate that if for now, a Christian is nominated by the PDP, it will polarise the state along religious lines and this may led to the party being perceived as not prepared to challenge the APC.
On the part of Kogites, no one wants to be perceived as voting for an aspirant along religious lines so they will rather avoid to have the 2015 episode where Southern Nigeria voted a Christian president running on the platform PDP; leaving the North with no choice but to vote a Moslem rival running on the platform of the APC. If voters will have their way, all frontline parties should field Moslem candidates so every atom of religious bias is eliminated.
The five aspirants in this tier are distinguished and exceptional in their respective endeavours but statutory delegates are strongly unlikely to vote for them because on the event that they snatch a win in the internal election organized by the PDP, they will lose the major election due to sentiments.
The policy drivers of the PDP at the National level have a lot of work to do in Kogi State before the primaries. PDP governors from the South must weigh in because they may be the only ones that can exercise objectivity in a matter as sensitive as Kogi State where religion and ethnicity play a big role during politics.
While no aspirant should be coerced. Enforceable understanding must be reached and carrots offered to as many aspirants as possible to persuade them to voluntarily quit the stage for those who have lesser baggages to handle. 13 is a manageable number but in the case of Kogi State, it should still be pruned down to not more than 4.
The aim of this advocated process is fully maximize and leverage the crisis management instruments of the party towards delivering one aspirant that is acceptable, credible and capable; with no baggage as PDP candidate come November 2019.
Salihu Ohide Siyaka is a PhD researcher at the Federal University of Technology, Minna.
