With the publication of notice of polls by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) last Friday, and the primaries coming up later this month, the countdown to the 2019 polls may have begun in earnest. The publication of notice of polls is a requirement of the Electoral Act as contained in Section 30(1) which provides that the notice of election be made not later than 90 days before the election.
Chairman of INEC, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, said during the formal presentation of certificates to 23 newly registered political parties in Abuja that primary elections to field party candidates for the general polls will commence on August 18 and end October 7, 2018.
With barely seven months to the 2019 general polls, permutations on their possible outcome have been the subject of discussions among Nigerians, especially political watchers. While the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has signed a pact with other political parties to wrest power from the incumbent, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC is not resting on its oars to retain the presidency.
For the ruling All Progressives Congress, therefore, the election has long been won and lost. Members of the ruling party who are in this school of thought argue that, unlike in 2015, when the APC played its role as a vibrant opposition party and eventually defeated an incumbent Peoples Democratic Party, the opposition today lacks the cohesion to replicate this feat. On the other hand, supporters of the opposition PDP insist that there is no time in the history of the ruling party that makes more vulnerable to defeat than now.
President Muhammadu Buhari, who became the ultimate beneficiary of the chaos which followed the loss of cohesion within the then PDP, has already declared his intention to seek re-election in the 2019 presidential election. His historic victory in 2015 was largely attributed to a combination of factors which include, but not limited to, his personality; public discontent with the massive looting of the public treasury in the Jonathan’s government; the near collapse of security in the country as well as infighting among key stakeholders within the hierarchy of the then ruling People’s Democratic Party.
The hurdles
Although he has enthused that victory was sure for the APC in the next year’s elections, analysts say he has a different set of challenges to contend with in his re-election bid come 2019. Among the biggest hurdles before Buhari, according to analysts, is the caliber of opponents he would be facing in the presidential race. Prominent among those seeking presidential tickets on the platform of the PDP are a former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, who formally declared his intention recently in Yola, the Adamawa State capital.
At a rally in Yola, Adamawa State, Atiku vowed to unseat the APC government not only in Adamawa State but also at the federal level and reclaim them for the PDP.
According to him, Nigerians were disappointed with the APC-led government as the insecurity situation has worsened. He reportedly said: “In 1998, I took this state to the PDP. Today, I have returned to take what rightly belongs to the PDP.”
If he picks the PDP ticket, analysts say, the Turaki of Adamawa could give Buhari a run for his money. Apart from Atiku other PDP bigwigs that are likely to slug it out with Buhari in the 2019 presidential race are: former Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa State, former Governor Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna State, Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo of Gombe State, former Governor Donald Duke of Cross River State, former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau of Kano State and the outgoing of of Ekiti State Ayodele Fayose.
The PDP has already zoned the 2019 presidency to the North and has severally pledged to support any candidate from the zone to compete with Buhari in the presidential election. With the party going into coalition with other political parties with a vow to unseat Buhari, analyst say the race may not be an easy one for Buhari.
However given the acrimonies that are usually trail PDP primaries, especially presidential primaries, some political watchers are doubtful if the PDP-led coalition would indeed rally round a candidate to face Buhari in the presidential race.
Another hurdle that Buhari may face in his re-election bid, according to observers, is the gale of defections that has hit the ruling APC thereby swelling the ranks of the opposition PDP. A parallel is drawn in this regard the defection of five governors of Rivers (Rotimi Amaechi), Kano (Rabiu Kwankwaso), Adamawa (Murtala Nyako), Kwara (Abdulfatah Ahmed) and Sokoto (Magatakarda Wammako) as well as speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, before the 2015 election. It was largely viewed as the crown capping of the intricate political dynamics, calculations, permutations and treacheries that conspired to expose the underbelly of Jonathan’s presidency.
To many, therefore, similar defections experienced under the current dispensation with the Senate President leading the pack of defectors in the National Assembly as well three APC governors of Benue, Kwara and Sokoto states is a threat to the victory of the ruling party in 2019.
Just like the Jonathan’s incumbency factor, his seeming sure-footed candidature, his custody and superintendence of the 16-year-old power heritage of the PDP had suffered collateral damage due largely to the defections and the resultant tsunami which the 2015 general elections exemplified, analysts believe the ruling APC may experience a similar fate in 2019.
Festus Keyamo, spokesman for President Muhammadu Buhari 2019 presidential campaign, however, says defections won’t affect the president’s second term bid, adding that instead of the defection to affect the president’s re-election bid, he will coast home to victory in 2019.
Keyamo reportedly said Buhari was going into the 2019 election as an incumbent enjoying the support of a lot more politicians than he ever did, adding that the president won with large margins in the past in some states without the support of majority of the politicians from those states who are now members of the opposition party.
“From the demographics we have now, the historic figures and the present realities that we know, these defections will have little or no impact on the chances of Mr President’s re-election,” he said, adding that Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe and Niger, with over 30 million registered voters, are states that Buhari had consistently won with considerable large margins in past elections, especially in 2011 and 2015.
Added to this is the factor of voter apathy. Riding on the crest of the change mantra that gave APC victory in 2015, Nigerians invested high expectations in the APC led government in terms of its campaign promises. Some observers, however, believe that many of the electorate may no longer be enthusiastic in casting their votes for either the ruling party or the opposition due to their disillusionment with the political system. This would have effect on the voting patterns, even in states that are traditionally Buhari support base.
Similarly states that have experienced security challenges, particularly in the North-Central zone who abandoned the PDP in 2015 because of Buhari’s change promise may no longer go with the ruling party, analysts say. The growing security threats occasioned by the wanton killings and destruction of property in states of Benue, Plateau, Taraba and Kaduna, are cited as some of the major challenges staring the President in the face in his re-election bid in the affected areas. Aside from his promise to deal with corruption, the President promised to secure the lives and property of Nigerians and improve the economy.
Like the PDP in 2015, infighting among major stakeholders has become the order of the day within the APC. It is, perhaps, in recognition of this fact that Buhari had named Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to lead efforts to reconcile aggrieved party members.
Making inroads into the South-South and South-East, where he has had a long history of electoral defeats, is another challenge Buhari must surmount. Apart from his perceived marginalization of the zone in terms of political appointments, a large number of easterners still hold an impression that another Buhari presidency will not change the situation of the region.
But the Director-General of Voice of Nigeria, a stalwart of the APC from the zone, Osita Okechukwu, countered this belief, arguing that while it is true that the South-East appears to have been marginalized, especially in terms of appointments, the President has made up for this oversight in the area of development projects.
“Today, this administration, which has not appointed as many south-easterners as the previous regime, has more than any administration in Nigeria’s history, committed itself to key infrastructural development projects such as railway lines, roads and the construction of the second Niger Bridge which has been abandoned for years,” Osita reportedly said.
Also the recent defection by former minority leader in the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, analysts say, may change the equation. South-South coordinator of Buhari Support Group, Anabs Sara-Igbe, said even though he recorded low votes in the zone during the 2015 election, Buhari’s chances were high this time around, especially with the defection of Senator Akpabio to the APC.
His strength
But some pundits believe that Buhari’s chances in 2019 are still bright due to several factors that may count in his advantage. For instance, some analysts cite the Buhari factor in relation to recently conducted by-elections into the national assembly. Presidential spokesman, Garba Shehu, said last week that the victory of the APC in Katsina, Bauchi and Kogi states was an evidence of the popularity of President Muhammadu Buhari. Shehu reportedly told State House correspondents that the victories showed that President Buhari and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo have a better chance in the 2019 presidential election.
Although 39 political parties were said to have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to field a single presidential candidate that would unseat President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019, some analysts say seeming conflict of interest may undoubtedly pose a serious threat to the actualization of the main objective of the mega alliance. Also given its antecedents with regards to recriminations that usually dog primaries and conventions, observers are doubtful if a consensus presidential candidate for the PDP-led coalition would work.
Similarly, with the recent confirmation by Presidency that vice president Yemi Osinbajo will run with President Buhari again in 2019, many believe that his support base in the South-West coupled with the ‘Tinubu factor’ would enhance Buhari’s re-election bid in the zone.
Shehu, while reacting to the string of victories recorded by the ruling APC at the recent by-elections in the country, said: “The ‘decisive’ victories in senatorial and state Assembly elections in Katsina, Bauchi, Kogi states were an indication that the Buhari/Osinbajo presidential ticket that won the 2015 election will ensure an encore in 2019.”
Given the hurdles and advantages that characterize his re-election bid, analysts say the battle for the presidency in 2019 will certainly be an interesting one.
