If the nation experiences a strong sense of deja vu, it could be forgiven. It has seen much of what is going in its politics in the past, such that some optimists will say there is an emerging political culture of sorts. Even the plots and characters are substantially the same. The difference is in the details, but they are important details. The end game may take different forms from the past. By the end of September, the drama in the national assembly would have played itself out, in all probability with the law as principal casualty. The epic battle for Buhari’s opponent from the PDP will be in its final stages, and Saraki, Atiku, Tambuwal, Kwankwaso or some other dark (but wealthy) horse will bear the scars of a vicious fight. Buhari’s health will be stretched to prepare for a tough campaign. It is that season of stress, gambles and gloomy foreboding over the nature of the next elections and its aftermath.
First, take our politicians’ routine of casually walking away from their political party, complete with the mandate given to them and the party, then setting up shop in another party to do maximum damage to their former party. This is a very old tradition in Nigerian politics. Awolowo triggered it when he orchestrated the cross-carpeting of ethnic politics to dislodge Zik’s edifice in Lagos and the West. Since 1999, I can think of only Presidents Obasanjo and Jonathan as rising to the apex without changing parties on the way. Defections brought down Jonathan and helped Obasanjo and Buhari to the Presidency. Now defections are threatening Buhari. Defections are not motivated by values, ideologies, traditions, loyalties, or respect for the voter. Just plain, naked personal ambition. Our politicians are our masters, and we follow wherever they go.
Next, take the hallowed tradition of insisting that every president must have two terms (in some cases, even longer than the sum of two terms) irrespective of his performance. Obasanjo fell for the bogey that the nation would collapse if he did not get a third term. Jonathan completed ‘YarAdua’s term, had his own first term and wanted another, despite being, by a mile, the worst president in the nation’s history. Buhari wants another term, although the jury is still out over whether he should not take the gold for the most disappointing leadership. It seems certain that we have no place in our political culture for a one-term presidency. Just being president for a term will qualify you for a life-and-death battle for another. It is very likely that the bulk of Buhari’s supporters are the worst-off under his leadership, but his supporters will fight (in some cases, literally) to have him back in spite of advanced age, poor health and an indifferent performance.
Now, bring in the motley of ambitions. Among the colourful contenders for the ticket of the major opposition party, the PDP, you have an enviable line-up of politicians whose career shows many bruises from the scramble for the top position. Leading the pack is Atiku with an intimidating war chest and an unwavering conviction that it is his manifest destiny to be president. Others will jostle with him with a record of failed attempts that have not dulled their enthusiasm. There are serving and former governors, former senators and others with various credentials as elected people, all reinforcing the perception that if you lack a long list of have-beens, you have no business aspiring to be president. With this array of former and current leaders, you would expect the competition to be about who did better with their mandates. It will not be. Nor will it be about one or two who could give the PDP a fresh image. It will be about who has the most money to fix deals and buy delegates. A few who will lose out will try to cause as much damage as they can, then they will either line up to be settled, or move elsewhere where they think the grass is greener. Until next time.
What about the powers of money, ethnicity, religion and violence? Irrespective of the quality of the competition, these elements have always had the final say. The touted pristine image and campaign of President Buhari in 2014/2015 was not an exception. The PDP may have seriously out-spent him, but the Buhari campaign was funded with billions and billions of other peoples’ money.In Nigeria, whoever you are, you need a fortune to campaign to get the delegates to endorse you, to cover the country in huge rallies, pay the media, pay enforcers, induce voters, buy off opposition and compromise the electoral process. If he has to come back, Buhari will need to match the opposition in spending, tap into primordial sentiments and benefit from some intimidation by his supporters. Money will start rolling out soon to PDP delegates and supporters. What APC does not spend in presidential primaries, it would have to spend in poaching the opposition or keeping legislators and other politicians from defecting from it. The way things are going, this will require more than a tidy sum and a tinkering with some EFCC cases.
Issues? Yes, they do get a mention, but the similarities on issues are uncanny. Everyone will promise to secure the nation, fight corruption better and grow the economy. As usual, it is not the issue that will differentiate the candidate, but his platform, his faith and region and the wealth behind his campaign. There is, however, a major difference this time. This time the issue will be Buhari’s person. He will insist he has done well, in spite of a whole host of challenges, and will do better with a second term. The opposition will say he failed on all counts, and must be replaced so that the nation can be reunited and re-secured. This election will divide the nation between those who intensely dislike Buhari and those who are passionate about him, warts and all. This is why the electoral process must be free to settle who becomes the next president.
Jamila Abubakar wrote this piece from Abuja.
